Global fertilizer market analytics
Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market ended the week steadily, recovering after the correction. The market is supported by new deals, limited supply and expectations of increased demand in September.
Key factors:
– Egypt and the Middle East recovered after the previous price decline.
– Brazil remains an active market, although buyers are acting cautiously.
– Domestic and export prices in China remain firm.
– The expected growth in demand in the US, Brazil and India may further support the market.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen market is gradually stabilizing. The potential for a further price decline is limited by firmer levels at key suppliers. Further dynamics will depend on demand activity and the availability of Chinese exports.
Ammonium sulphate / AS
The AS market is stable but depends on supply from China and the nitrogen segment.
Key factors:
– China remains the main benchmark for buyers.
– Buyers are cautiously building positions due to uncertainty over delivery times, clearance and logistics.
– The recovery of the urea market may partly support AS.
BINFIELD assessment: the AS market remains subdued and less volatile than urea. When purchasing, it is important to assess not only the price but also the origin of the product and the reliability of supply.
Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate market remains stable but sensitive to weather, geopolitical and logistics factors. DAP shows greater resilience, while MAP remains under pressure from weak demand from Brazil.
Key factors:
– DAP and MAP ended the week without significant price changes.
– Market participants are watching tenders in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan.
– El Niño (a natural climate phenomenon characterized by abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean waters) may affect yields and further demand in key regions.
– Transit restrictions through the Panama Canal create additional logistics risks.
– The market is awaiting OCP’s further actions regarding supplies to Europe and Brazil.
BINFIELD assessment: DAP is supported by South Asia and limited supply. MAP remains weaker due to the situation in Brazil, but the high cost of sulphur and production costs limit the potential for price declines.
Sulfur
The sulphur market remains one of the key cost factors for phosphate fertilizers and SOP.
Key factors:
– The high cost of sulphur continues to support the production costs of DAP, MAP, TSP and SOP.
– Phosphate producers are planning production cautiously due to pressure on margins.
– Reduced utilization of certain facilities shows how raw material costs affect product availability.
– Logistics and geopolitical risks increase market uncertainty.
BINFIELD assessment: sulphur remains a systemic constraint for the phosphate market. Even with weak demand, high production costs do not create preconditions for a quick price decline.
Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market is stable, but demand in most regions is weak. The greatest pressure is on MOP with sufficient supply.
Key factors:
– Bangladesh received offers under its tender, but demand remains below supply.
– New tenders are expected in Asia.
– Brazil may slow its purchasing pace after covering its main needs.
– The SOP market remains stable, but demand is restrained by high production costs.
– Weather risks in India may affect future buyer activity.
BINFIELD assessment: the potash market remains stable but is approaching a soft scenario. Weak demand limits the growth potential, while new tenders in Asia and supply reduction risks may restrain further price declines.
Overall conclusion
The fertilizer market enters the last week of August without a single price trend. The nitrogen segment is recovering after the correction, the phosphate segment remains under the influence of high raw material costs and limited supply, and the potash market is stable amid weak demand.
The key risks of the 2026–2027 season remain product availability, delivery times and logistics reliability.
