GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
14 July 2026
1. Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market has moved from a sharp decline to an attempt at stabilization. There are signs of demand recovery in some regions, but uncertainty about China and the Middle East remains.
Key factors:
– European demand supported granular urea deals from Egypt and Algeria.
– In Brazil, the market has revived, but buyers remain cautious.
– In the Middle East, risks to supply availability remain.
– Chinese urea exports remain limited.
– Southeast Asia is less active; buyers are waiting for signals on Chinese exports.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen market is gradually emerging from the sharp decline phase. No significant growth is visible yet, but the market may strengthen in August-September if demand recovers in Europe and Brazil and amid limited Chinese supply.
2. Ammonium sulphate / AS
From 16 July, China is introducing mandatory CIQ inspection for ammonium sulphate exports. This is neither a ban nor a quota, but the requirement may reduce export efficiency.
Key factors:
– CIQ inspections may delay cargo clearance by 2-3 weeks.
– Not all Chinese producers will be able to meet the new requirements.
– Some traders have already withdrawn offers from the market.
– Bottlenecks may arise both at plants and at ports.
– Additional storage, demurrage and financing costs will increase the final cost of the product.
BINFIELD assessment: the AS market is entering a phase of increased uncertainty. Chinese supply may become less available, and a higher price threshold will be set for export prices. Until detailed rules are published, quotations should be given with caution.
3. Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate fertilizer market remains in a standoff between buyers and producers. Buyers are pushing prices down, but high production costs restrain a sharp decline.
Key factors:
– Indian importers expect more favourable DAP prices.
– Producers in Egypt and Turkey are forced to consider lower prices.
– In the US, DAP continued to get cheaper due to weak demand.
– Mosaic is cutting phosphate production in the US and Brazil due to a shortage of raw materials.
– High sulphur prices support DAP/MAP production costs.
– The decline in the Tampa ammonia price only partly offsets the impact of expensive sulphur.
BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate market remains under buyer pressure, but a sharp fall should not be expected. Due to expensive sulphur and lower production volumes, a further decline is unlikely.
4. Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains the most stable among the main groups despite weak demand in some regions.
Key factors:
– In Brazil and Southeast Asia, MOP prices fell due to weak demand.
– In the first half of 2026, Brazil imported a record 7.3 million t of MOP, 6% more than last year.
– Standard and white MOP remain in limited supply.
– Granular MOP is under seasonal pressure.
– SOP remains stable and sensitive to the sulphur market.
BINFIELD assessment: the potash fertilizer market remains relatively stable, while granular MOP prices may decline locally under the influence of seasonal demand. Standard MOP and SOP are supported by limited availability and production costs.
Overall conclusion
What this means for the market: in the coming weeks, the key factors will remain the availability of Chinese exports, the cost of sulphur, production constraints and possible logistics delays. Purchases for the 2026–2027 season should be planned in advance, especially for products at risk of limited supply.
