Global fertilizer market analytics
Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market strengthened after the August correction. It is supported by more active demand in key regions, limited availability of certain volumes and expectations of autumn purchases.
Key factors:
– Egypt and the Middle East continued to strengthen.
– Brazil and the US are showing more active demand.
– Chinese export levels are stable, but additional export volumes limit the growth potential.
– Urea shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains complicated.
– High grain prices further support the economics of fertilizer application.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen market looks stronger than in mid-August. Autumn demand may support further strengthening, but Chinese supply remains the key constraint.
Ammonium sulphate / AS
AS remains resilient against the background of the general recovery of the nitrogen segment.
Key factors:
– China remains the main source of supply and the benchmark for the market.
– Brazilian demand supports export activity.
– Logistics and delivery time risks remain.
BINFIELD assessment: AS remains dependent on Chinese exports. When purchasing, it is important to consider not only price but also the availability of batches and reliability of supply.
Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate market shows mixed dynamics. DAP is supported by Asia, while MAP remains weaker due to limited demand in Brazil.
Key factors:
– India is building up DAP stocks before the peak season and has agreed significant supply volumes with OCP.
– Bangladesh continues tender purchases of DAP and TSP.
– Demand in Asia supports export flows.
– MAP is under pressure from the weak Latin American market.
– The high cost and limited availability of sulphur affect phosphate production.
BINFIELD assessment: DAP looks more resilient than MAP. Asian demand and high production costs support the market despite weakness in certain regions.
Sulfur
Sulphur remains one of the main factors in the global phosphate fertilizer market. High raw material costs increase the cost of sulphuric and phosphoric acid and limit economically viable production volumes.
BINFIELD assessment: sulphur remains a systemic constraint on the supply of DAP, MAP, TSP and SOP. The potential for a significant decline in phosphate fertilizer prices remains limited.
Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains stable, but regional dynamics differ.
Key factors:
– The main trading activity is concentrated in Asia.
– Indonesia and Bangladesh continue tender purchases of MOP.
– China may slow imports after significant supply volumes in the first half of the year.
– Seasonal demand in Brazil is weakening.
– SOP remains resilient thanks to high production costs.
BINFIELD assessment: Asian demand supports MOP, but high stocks and weak Western markets limit the growth potential.
Overall conclusion
The fertilizer market ends August with moderately positive dynamics. Nitrogen is recovering, DAP is supported by Asian demand and expensive raw materials, MAP remains weaker, and potash remains stable.
The key risks of the 2026-2027 season remain unchanged: product availability, raw material costs and logistics reliability. The market increasingly depends not only on demand but also on producers’ ability to supply the required volumes on time.
