GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
28 July 2026
Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market remains stable after recovering in the first half of July. Prices are holding at current levels, and demand remains active in Europe, Brazil and markets west of the Suez Canal.
Key factors:
– The European market supports demand for urea from North Africa.
– Brazil is accepting higher price levels ahead of the buying season.
– The tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz keeps logistics risks in place.
– There are no significant shipment disruptions. About 500 thousand t of urea remain in the Persian Gulf.
– In China, prices remain stable, and demand for prilled urea is subdued.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen market remains stable. Chinese supply limits the upside price potential, but active demand in Brazil and Europe supports the market.
Ammonium sulphate / AS
The ammonium sulphate market remains under the influence of new CIQ requirements for exports from China, which increases supply uncertainty.
Key factors:
– New inspections may increase clearance time for export batches.
– Not all producers adapt quickly to the requirements.
– Risks of shipment delays at plants and ports remain.
– Additional logistics and financial costs may raise the final cost of the product.
BINFIELD assessment: the AS market is becoming less predictable. Chinese supply may not be available to everyone or within the usual timeframes, so quotations should include a margin on price and delivery times.
Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate fertilizer market remains under pressure from weak demand, while high production costs restrain price declines. The key factor remains the shortage and high cost of sulphur.
Key factors:
– DAP shipments to Asia from Saudi Arabia continue, but logistics through the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remain risky.
– Routes through the Suez Canal or around Africa may increase delivery times and costs.
– In Vietnam, Vinachem may suspend DAP production in August due to the sulphur shortage and high production costs.
– Chinese DAP producers remain outside the active export market.
– Buyers continue to push prices down, but producers are holding them due to rising production costs.
BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate market is not yet getting sufficient support from demand, but the potential for further price declines remains limited. The high cost of sulphur, logistics risks and possible production cuts restrain a significant decline in DAP and MAP prices.
Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains the most stable among the main groups, but differences within the segment are increasing.
Key factors:
– Uralkali is shutting down its granulation capacity for maintenance in the third quarter.
– The reduction in granular MOP output may be 30-40%, about 300-400 thousand t.
– Belaruskali also announced a production cut of 500 thousand t.
– In China, MOP stocks rose to 3 million t — the highest since the beginning of 2025.
– The high cost of sulphur continues to support SOP prices.
BINFIELD assessment: the potash market remains stable. Reduced granular MOP production may support prices, while the SOP market will continue to depend on the cost of sulphur.
Overall conclusion
The fertilizer market no longer looks clearly bearish. The nitrogen segment has stabilized, phosphate fertilizers remain under pressure from high production costs, and the potash market shows the greatest resilience.
In the 2026-2027 season, the main risks are not only prices but also timely deliveries, product availability and logistics. CIQ inspections in China, high sulphur costs, plant maintenance shutdowns and shipping risks may limit the supply of certain fertilizers. Additional pressure comes from attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea, which raise insurance and freight costs and complicate logistics. That is why postponing purchases until the peak of the season may be risky, even with relatively stable prices.
