GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
1. Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market continues to decline after new low prices were set in the Indian tender and amid expectations of the return of Chinese exports.
Key factors:
– The Indian NFL tender ended with the allocation of 1.7 million t of urea. This temporarily relieved some of the pressure on suppliers but did not change the overall downward trend.
– The market is already assessing potential destinations for Chinese urea in the coming months, especially given India’s lack of competitiveness at current prices.
– In the Middle East, Egypt and Nigeria, prices continued to fall following the Indian tender.
– In the US and Brazil, urea also became cheaper amid weak demand and a seasonal decline in activity.
Pressure on the market is expected to persist in the coming weeks until Chinese export volumes start actively entering the market in July.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen market remains under pressure. A short-term rebound is possible due to the closing of the Indian tender and local demand, but the overall risk of further decline remains because of the return of Chinese exports.
2. Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate fertilizer market remains in wait-and-see mode, but buyers’ positions are gradually strengthening. At the same time, the fundamental scarcity of raw materials does not allow expecting a sharp collapse.
Key factors:
– Most trading activity is concentrated in DAP. Russian and Saudi suppliers sold a total of about 180 thousand t of DAP to India and Ethiopia.
– OCP also sold about 117 thousand t of DAP/MAP/TSP to Europe and Asia on firmer terms.
– Buyers in other regions remain on the sidelines, waiting for prices to fall.
– The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key factor for sulphur and phosphate supplies. Even with signs of logistics stabilizing, market participants remain cautious.
– The high cost of sulphur and limited availability of raw materials continue to support phosphate production costs.
BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate market remains between buyer pressure and production constraints. There may be no sharp decline, as the raw material factor, primarily sulphur, continues to limit the downside potential.
3. Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains the most resilient among the main fertilizer groups. The crystalline MOP segment looks strongest.
Key factors:
– Demand for standard MOP in Asia remains high, especially in India and Southeast Asia.
– In Europe, negotiations on third-quarter contracts have started. Standard MOP suppliers are aiming for an increase relative to the second quarter.
– Granular MOP remains seasonally weaker, but producers are generally covered with orders for July, which limits the risk of a sharp decline.
– SOP continues to be supported by high sulphur costs and limited product availability.
BINFIELD assessment: crystalline MOP remains the strongest segment in the potash group. Granular MOP is temporarily weaker due to seasonality, but the risks of limited availability in the coming periods remain if producers focus on standard product.
Overall conclusion
The global fertilizer market remains volatile and depends significantly on China’s export policy, the raw material situation and logistics risks. The nitrogen segment remains under pressure due to weak demand and expectations of new Chinese volumes. The phosphate market looks more resilient to a sharp decline due to the high cost of sulphur and production constraints. The potash segment remains the most stable, especially thanks to demand for crystalline MOP in Asia.
For agricultural producers, the main risk for the 2026-2027 season lies not only in possible price changes but also in the availability of the necessary products in peak periods. It is recommended to plan purchases in advance, taking into account market volatility, raw material constraints and a possible redistribution of export flows.
