GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market strengthened after a weak start to July. Instead of a seasonal decline, demand picked up.
Key factors:
– European demand supported urea deals from North Africa.
– In the Middle East, prices rose due to producers’ caution and risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
– Brazil is accepting higher price levels ahead of the buying season.
– China changed its minimum export benchmark, linking it to the average price of the previous week.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen fertilizer market has strengthened, but there are no prerequisites for a sharp price increase yet. Demand may grow in August, especially in South America and if India returns. At the same time, supplies from China may restrain further price increases.
Ammonium sulphate / AS
The AS market remains a risk zone due to mandatory CIQ inspection for exports from China.
Key factors:
– The introduction of CIQ inspection may slow down the clearance of export shipments.
– Some producers have not yet completed adapting to the updated procedures.
– There is a risk of delays in shipments from plants and ports.
– Additional logistics and financing costs may increase the final cost of AS.
Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate fertilizer market is waiting for India to step up purchases. Buyers are pressuring the market, but producers are holding their positions due to high production costs.
Key factors:
– Importers and suppliers are expecting a large Indian DAP tender.
– Buyers in India and Southeast Asia are resisting high prices.
– Escalation in the Middle East reduces shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and supports raw material and freight costs.
– Problems with phosphate rock exports from Egypt may intensify the search for alternative sources.
BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate fertilizer market remains under pressure from buyers and high costs. Due to the high cost of sulphur and raw material risks, no sharp decline in DAP and MAP prices is expected.
Sulfur
The sulphur market is in a lull. Supply is limited, and high prices are forcing buyers to postpone purchases.
Key factors:
– The high cost of sulphur is causing demand destruction, growing debt burdens and cash flow shortages.
– Some producers are selling sulphur or sulphuric acid instead of finished products to maintain margins.
– Supplies from the Middle East are again complicated by the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.
– In China, domestic prices rose to 9,100-9,300 yuan/t, and port stocks are low, at about 758 thousand t.
– OCP in Morocco is focusing on TSP instead of DAP, as TSP requires 25% less sulphur.
BINFIELD assessment: sulphur remains a key cost factor for phosphate fertilizers and potassium sulphate (SOP). Even with weak demand, high raw material costs give no grounds to expect a significant price decline.
Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains stable, but the situation differs across segments.
Key factors:
– Uralkali is shutting down its granulation capacity for maintenance in the third quarter.
– The reduction in granular MOP output may be 30-40%, about 300-400 thousand t.
– In China, MOP stocks rose to 3 million t, the highest since the beginning of 2025.
– SOP is supported by high sulphur costs.
BINFIELD assessment: the potash market remains resilient. Reduced granular MOP production may support prices, while the SOP market will continue to depend on the cost of sulphur.
Overall conclusion
The fertilizer market remains uneven. The nitrogen segment is gradually recovering, but price growth is restrained by active supply from China. For phosphate fertilizers, the key factors remain the cost of sulphur and raw materials and Indian demand. The potash market is stable, although reduced granular MOP production may affect the supply-demand balance.
Attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea remain an additional risk for the market. They increase insurance and transport costs and complicate logistics. Even when fertilizers are available, delivery delays, route changes and higher product costs are possible.
