GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
1. Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market fell sharply after news of a possible resumption of Chinese exports without a set minimum price level.
Key factors:
– The Indian NFL tender became the main benchmark for the market. The lowest offers were significantly below the levels discussed in mid-May.
– China’s position on export prices changed during the week, which increased uncertainty and triggered a sharp decline in price expectations.
– NFL continued the counter-offer stage for all suppliers. The market is discussing the possibility of about 100,000 t of confirmed volumes after the first round.
– In the Middle East and Egypt, prices fell following the Indian tender.
– In Brazil, the US and Europe, demand remains weak, which puts additional pressure on the market.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen market remains under strong pressure. The Indian tender may temporarily relieve some of the pressure, but the return of Chinese exports in July could again intensify the price decline in the long term.
2. Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate market remains in wait-and-see mode pending the return of key buyers. Despite reduced DAP/MAP production, demand remains weak.
Key factors:
– Buyers in India, Bangladesh and Ethiopia are not yet showing active demand, which restrains the market.
– In Egypt, the NCIC tender came in below earlier expectations, increasing pressure on prices.
– DAP and TSP exports to Bangladesh may resume, as the country has been cut off from supplies from China.
– Bangladesh is one of the key phosphate importers. Imports have been insignificant in recent months, but the country is expected to return to the market with large tenders, which may strengthen producers’ positions.
– Tensions in the Middle East and risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain an important factor for logistics and raw materials.
– High stocks in India and Brazil are limiting the growth potential for now, despite a possible reduction in supply. BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate market is caught between weak demand and production cuts. If large importers return to buying at the same time, DAP/MAP availability may quickly become tight.
3. Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains the most resilient among the main fertilizer groups. Crystalline MOP retains the strongest support.
Key factors:
– Demand for crystalline MOP in Asia remains high, supporting prices in Southeast Asia and Europe.
– An Indonesian importer closed a tender for 75,000 t of standard MOP for July delivery.
– The high deal level in Indonesia raised the upper limit of the price range for Southeast Asia. – In Europe, crystalline MOP also strengthened amid limited global supply.
– Granular MOP is seasonally weaker, but confirmed orders at producers are limiting the risk of a sharp price drop for now.
– SOP continues to be supported by high raw material costs and limited product availability.
BINFIELD assessment: crystalline MOP remains the strongest segment in the potash group. For granular MOP, there is a risk of limited availability in the coming periods if producers continue to focus on standard product.
Overall conclusion
The global fertilizer market remains volatile. The nitrogen segment is under pressure due to the China factor and weak demand. The phosphate market is balancing between weak purchasing activity and production cuts. The potash segment looks the most resilient thanks to active demand for crystalline MOP in Asia.
!️ For farmers, this means: when planning purchases for the 2026–2027 season, it is important to monitor the dynamics of individual fertilizer groups, as the nitrogen, phosphate and potash segments are currently influenced by different market factors. Decisions should be made taking into account the farm’s needs, seasonality, availability of specific products and the current price situation.
