GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
GLOBAL MARKET ANALYTICS
30 June 2026
1. Nitrogen fertilizers
The urea market continues to decline, but the pace of the fall has slowed after the sharp collapse since the beginning of May.
Key factors:
– The global market remains under pressure due to weak demand and expectations of Chinese exports.
– Iranian urea received a temporary exemption from US sanctions until 21 August, allowing buyers to purchase the product in dollars.
– Egypt changed its export duty on nitrogen fertilizers, replacing the fixed rate with one linked to the selling price.
– Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually resuming. After 19 June, at least eight vessels with urea left the region.
– In Brazil and India, interest in purchases remains limited, which continues to put pressure on the market.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen market remains under pressure but is approaching a potential price bottom. Further weakness is possible in the short term, but deferred demand from August may support prices.
2. Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate fertilizer market remains under buyer pressure. A calmer situation in the Middle East has strengthened expectations of lower prices.
Key factors:
– India cancelled the NFL tender for the purchase of 100-120 thousand t of DAP after the announcement of a peace deal between the US and Iran.
– Buyers in India are waiting for new lower offers and are holding back activity for now.
– After the US–Iran deal, at least 153 thousand t DAP/MAP.
– DAP stocks are growing in South Asia. In India, the increase in domestic production and imports has outpaced demand growth.
– Pakistan has also accumulated DAP stocks due to weak demand, and Bangladesh is still waiting for a private sector tender.
– High sulphur prices continue to support phosphate production costs.
– The ban on sulphur exports in Russia will intensify the raw material shortage for phosphate fertilizer production and keep their prices high.
BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate market is under pressure, but there may be no sharp collapse. Buyers expect a decline, but expensive sulphur and raw material constraints continue to support the market.
3. Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains the most stable among the main groups, but buyers have become more cautious and are waiting for new price benchmarks.
Key factors:
– Market liquidity has declined; buyers are reacting cautiously to weak sentiment in other fertilizer segments.
– In January–May, China imported 7.5 million t of MOP, a record level for this period.
– Demand for standard MOP remains firm, especially in Asia.
– Granular MOP is under seasonal pressure; prices have fallen slightly in some markets.
– SOP remains more resilient thanks to high sulphur costs and limited product availability.
BINFIELD assessment: the potash segment remains resilient. Standard MOP is supported by demand in Asia, and SOP is held up by high production costs. Short-term weakness is possible for granular MOP, but no sharp decline is expected yet.
Overall conclusion
The mineral fertilizer market as a whole remains under pressure, but there are no signs of a significant price fall. The nitrogen and phosphate segments are weakening but are already approaching a price bottom. Further decline is restrained by expectations of a demand recovery and the raw material situation. At the same time, the potash market shows greater resilience thanks to stable demand and high production costs, which support the price level.
In the short term, the market may remain volatile with local declines, but a gradual recovery in demand is likely from August, which may stabilize or partly support prices in all key segments.
