Global fertilizer market analytics
Nitrogen fertilizers
After the opening of the Indian tender, urea prices fell. Offers in the tender were lower than expected. The activity of suppliers from China and Russia also affected the market and set a new price benchmark.
Key factors:
– The Indian RCF tender was the main event of the week.
– Prices in the Middle East fell but later partly recovered.
– Brazil remains active, but buyers are acting cautiously.
– Demand in the US, Brazil and India in September may support the market.
BINFIELD assessment: the nitrogen fertilizer market has entered a correction phase. Prices remain under pressure, but further declines may be limited by autumn demand and the availability of Chinese supplies.
Ammonium sulphate / AS
AS remains under the influence of Chinese exports and the general weakening of the nitrogen market.
Key factors:
– Chinese supply remains the main benchmark for buyers.
– The market is acting cautiously due to possible delays in clearance and deliveries.
– Falling urea prices increase pressure on the entire nitrogen segment.
BINFIELD assessment: the AS market remains less predictable. When purchasing Chinese product, it is important to assess not only the price but also the risk of delays, batch availability and clearance times.
Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
The phosphate fertilizer market is developing differently depending on the product. DAP remains more stable thanks to demand in South Asia, while MAP is under pressure from weak activity in Brazil.
Key factors:
– Demand in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan supports DAP and TSP.
– Pakistan may introduce DAP subsidies, which would strengthen import demand.
– Weak buyer activity in Brazil is restraining the MAP market.
– Growing SSP supplies from China are increasing competition for TSP and SSP.
– Lifosa has stopped production, reducing the European supply of DAP, MAP and NPS.
BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate market remains tense and uneven. DAP is supported by South Asia and limited supply, while MAP remains weaker due to low activity in Brazil.
Sulfur
Sulphur remains an important factor affecting phosphate fertilizer production costs.
Key factors:
– The high price of sulphur increases the cost of sulphuric and phosphoric acids.
– High production costs worsen the economics of DAP and MAP.
– The Lifosa shutdown shows that some European production is becoming less competitive.
BINFIELD assessment: sulphur remains one of the key factors for the phosphate market. If raw material prices stay high, producers may cut volumes that become economically unviable.
Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains stable, but weak demand continues to put pressure on prices. Most large markets are now in a seasonal lull.
Key factors:
– Indonesia’s tender for standard MOP sets the price benchmark for the Asian market.
– Brazil imported a record volume of MOP in January–July.
– Purchases in Brazil may slow down, as the main needs have already been partly covered.
– Bangladesh closes a large tender for standard MOP on 18 August.
BINFIELD assessment: the potash market remains stable but is moving closer to a soft scenario. Weak demand creates pressure, but production cuts and activity in Asian tenders may limit further declines.
Overall conclusion
The global fertilizer market enters the second half of August with different dynamics across segments. Nitrogen is correcting after the Indian tender, phosphorus remains under the influence of high raw material costs and production risks, and potash remains stable amid weak demand.
The key risk of the 2026–2027 season is gradually shifting from price to availability and reliability of supply. Therefore, purchases should be planned in advance, taking into account the origin of the goods, delivery times and raw material and logistics risks.
