GLOBAL FERTILIZER MARKET ANALYTICS

GLOBAL FERTILIZER MARKET ANALYTICS
3 August 2026

Nitrogen fertilizers
– The urea market is moving to moderate growth amid the Indian tender for 1.7 million t closing on 11 August.
– In Brazil, granular urea is being bought at about $500/t CFR.
– In North Africa, prices rose to $500/t FOB, while demand in Europe is weak.
– Chinese suppliers have raised prices.

Ammonium sulphate, AS
– The market remains uncertain due to the situation in China, CIQ inspections and the risk of delays. Logistics and financing may increase the final cost.
BINFIELD assessment: for batches from China, quotations should include a margin on timing and cost.

Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
– Demand is weak, but high production costs restrain the decline.
– MAP in Brazil is getting cheaper, but producers are not passing this decline on to DAP.
– In Europe, demand for DAP is weak, and sulphur remains expensive.
– DAP sales to India and Pakistan do not fully reflect the market; some deals relate to previously agreed cargoes.
– Egypt’s NCIC sold more DAP than planned but reduced its SSP offers.
BINFIELD assessment: sideways dynamics are likely for DAP and MAP. Expensive sulphur and production risks support prices.

Sulfur
– Sulphur prices have stabilized but remain high for phosphate producers.
– OCP reduced capacity utilization to 50–55% due to limited raw material availability.
– Supplies via Canada and Vancouver are vulnerable due to fires and transport disruptions, and Russian exports — due to transit restrictions through Kazakhstan.
BINFIELD assessment: sulphur remains a supply constraint. Even if prices stabilize, its high cost will keep the production costs of DAP, MAP, TSP and SOP up.

Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
– Indonesia is holding a tender for 75 thousand t of standard MOP; offers fell by about $20/t.
– Another importer announced a tender for 35 thousand t of white MOP.
– Uralkali agreed deliveries to China at $350/t DAP.
Belaruskali will cut production in the second half of the year by 500 thousand t.
BINFIELD assessment: supply cuts will support MOP prices, while SOP will depend on the cost of sulphur.

Overall conclusion
The market enters August without signs of a broad decline. Nitrogen is supported by the Indian tender, phosphorus is held up by high production costs and expensive sulphur, and potash is stable amid supply cuts. The key risk of the 2026–2027 season is shifting from price to product availability and supply reliability. Purchases should be planned in advance, taking into account timing and the origin of the goods.