Fertilizer market analytics | 30 September 2026
➡️Nitrogen fertilizers
After several weeks of growth, the urea market has moved into a consolidation phase. Activity declined at the beginning of the week, but a new Indian tender again increased buyer interest.
Key factors:
– India announced a large urea tender with deliveries until December.
– China maintains active export supply, especially of granular product.
– The Brazilian market remains firm.
– The movement of urea vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has partly resumed, but risks remain.
– The gap between Asian and Western markets is narrowing.
BINFIELD assessment: in the short term, the market looks balanced, with the potential for renewed strengthening after the Indian tender. The main factor limiting growth remains additional supply from China.
➡️Ammonium sulphate / AS
AS maintains stable dynamics. China remains the main source of supply, while demand from Brazil supports the export market.
BINFIELD assessment: no sharp changes are expected yet. A strong nitrogen segment supports AS, but sufficient supply from China limits the growth potential.
➡️Phosphate fertilizers / DAP, MAP, TSP
Buyer pressure is increasing in the phosphate market. India continues to buy DAP, but new deals show weaker dynamics. MAP also remains under pressure due to low activity in Brazil.
Key factors:
– India maintains high import demand but is seeking more favourable terms.
– Bangladesh continues tender purchases of DAP, TSP and SSP.
– Weak demand in Brazil continues to put pressure on MAP.
– The market is awaiting a new quarterly phosphoric acid contract in India.
– The high cost of sulphur and production limits the decline.
BINFIELD assessment: the phosphate market is gradually moving into a softer phase. Buyers have more room for negotiation, but high production costs remain a significant constraint on further declines.
➡️Sulfur
Sulphur continues to drive high phosphate fertilizer production costs. Even as end demand weakens, producers’ ability to cut prices significantly remains limited.
BINFIELD assessment: the raw material factor continues to support DAP, MAP, TSP and SOP and remains one of the key market risks.
➡️Potash fertilizers / MOP, SOP
The potash market remains under moderate pressure due to weak seasonal demand.
Key factors:
– Demand for MOP in most regions remains subdued.
– Maintenance of Uralkali’s granulation capacity has been extended into October.
– Congestion on rail routes to the Baltic ports creates risks of export delays.
– Belarusian potash may return more actively to the US market.
– Brazil is not yet showing a noticeable recovery in demand.
BINFIELD assessment: the base scenario for potash remains stable with moderate downside potential. Production and logistics constraints may keep the market from a deeper correction.
🟢Overall conclusion
The market enters October with mixed dynamics. Nitrogen is consolidating in anticipation of a new impulse from India, phosphates are gradually weakening under buyer pressure, and potash remains stable amid weak demand.
The main factors in the coming weeks are the Indian tender, Chinese export volumes, the cost of sulphur, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and logistics constraints.
